Olli Rehn (Centre), Pekka Haavisto (Greens) and Alexander Stubb (NCP) participated in a presidential election debate held by MTV in Helsinki on Wednesday, 13 December 2023. Stubb has widened his lead over the two other frontrunners, according to a new opinion poll by YLE. (Vesa Moilanen – Lehtikuva)
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ALEXANDER STUBB (NCP) has widened his lead over other presidential candidates, according to a new poll commissioned by YLE.
Stubb, the poll indicates, would receive 31 per cent of votes in the first round of voting, marking an increase of three percentage points from the previous poll. Support for Pekka Haavisto (Greens) contrastively decreased by three points to 23 per cent.
Olli Rehn (Centre), the third most popular candidate, saw his popularity decline by two points to 12 per cent.
Both Haavisto and Rehn are campaigning as the candidate of a constituency association, albeit with the backing of their respective parties.
It appears that the differences between the three leading candidates have solidified in December, Jari Pajunen, the managing director of Taloustutkimus, analysed for YLE on Wednesday. “When you start moving in a particular direction, it’s more likely that you’ll continue in that direction than start moving in another,” he said.
Much has happened in the chasing pack, however.
Jussi Halla-aho (PS) emerged as the fourth most popular candidate with a projected vote share of 10 per cent, representing a two-point rise from the previous poll. Jutta Urpilainen, who was officially named as the candidate of the Social Democrats in November, almost doubled her support from four to seven per cent.
Support for Li Andersson (LA) fell by two points to five per cent. Mika Aaltola, who is on campaign leave from his post as director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, saw his popularity plummet by five points to four per cent.
Pajunen said Aaltola’s decline reflects not only his lack of political experience but also the lack of support from a political party.
“When you don’t have a political home, you also don’t have the kind of support networks, the kind of visibility and the kind of campaign organisations [that other candidates have],” he explained to YLE.
Halla-aho, Stubb and Urpilainen all gained in the poll especially due to growing support from their own parties. Stubb, though, also managed to appeal to unaffiliated voters and voters of the Centre and Urpilainen to supporters of Haavisto.
YLE on Wednesday also revealed that Stubb would beat Haavisto in the second round of voting by a margin of 58 to 42 per cent.
A second round of voting – a run-off between the two most popular candidates in the first round – will be held if no candidate receives more than half of votes cast in the first round. The possible second round will for many voters be about voting for the least unappealing candidate rather than their preferred candidate, a proposition that could compel some to stay home.
A lot could depend on how many turn out to polling stations if their preferred candidate did not make it past the first round.
Pajunen stated that in general second-round votes tend to be split along the right—left axis. Stubb, as a result, would receive votes not only from supporters of the National Coalition, but also from people who in the first round voted for Halla-aho or Rehn. Haavisto would receive support not only from the Green League, but also from those who voted for Andersson or Urpilainen.
The first round of voting will start with an advanced voting period from 17 to 23 January and culminate on Sunday, 28 January. The possible second round of voting is on 11 February.
Taloustutkimus rang 2,046 people for the poll between 27 November and 7 December. Around 90 per cent, or 1,844, of the people reached were able and willing to disclose which candidate would receive their vote in the first round of voting.
The results have a margin of error of up to two percentage points.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
- Next Article National Coalition regains top spot in poll by HS
Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi
