Social Democrats stay at top as support for ruling coalition continues dwindling

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				Social Democrats stay at top as support for ruling coalition continues dwindling

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) talked to Tytti Tuppurainen and Antti Lindtman of the Social Democrats during a plenary session in parliament on 29 November 2024. Orpo’s ruling coalition is presently supported by only 41.2 per cent of the public, according to the latest opinion poll commissioned by YLE. The Social Democrats, in turn, are the most popular party in the country, enjoying the support of almost a quarter of the public. (Jussi Nukari – Lehtikuva)

THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY has held on to the top spot in the latest opinion poll commissioned by YLE.

The Finnish public broadcasting company reported last week that popular support for the opposition party has fallen by 0.3 percentage points to 24.0 per cent since early November. With the National Coalition and Finns Party either treading water or sinking, though, it remains comfortably the most popular political party in Finland.

Support for the National Coalition stood at 18.8 per cent for the second consecutive month. The Finns Party, in turn, was the one of the biggest losers of the poll, dropping 0.6 points to 15.1 per cent.

“Whenever the Finns Party’s support falls, the supporters go to the so-called porch,” Tuomo Turja, the research director of Taloustutkimus, stated to YLE on Friday.

Supporters of the populist right-wing party thus have a tendency to pull back to the sidelines rather than shift their support to the likes of the Centre or Social Democrats.

YLE highlighted that the popularity of the ruling coalition has eroded more rapidly than its predecessors, dwindling to 41.2 per cent in only about 18 months. Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s (SDP) five-party coalition government had an approval rating of 56.4 per cent and Prime Minister Juha Sipilä’s (Centre) three-party coalition one of 47.1 per cent at the corresponding point of their terms.

Support for the Centre stayed unchanged at 13.1 per cent, leaving the centre-right opposition party two points behind the Finns Party.

“[The Centre and the Finns Party] are getting closer to one another, and it remains to be seen what that means going forward, especially with the upcoming municipal elections. The Centre has traditionally been stronger in [the elections] than the Finns Party,” said Turja.

Antti Kaikkonen, the chairperson of the Centre, has seemingly succeeded in stabilising the party’s support at around 13 per cent by seeking to distinguish it from the left-leaning members of the opposition, the Green League and Left Alliance.

The Left Alliance saw its popularity decrease by 0.5 points to 8.8 per cent, the Swedish People’s Party by 0.7 points to 3.3 per cent. The Green League gained 0.2 points to climb to 8.2 per cent, the Christian Democrats 0.5 points to climb to 4.0 per cent and Movement Now 1.2 points to 2.3 per cent.

Turja estimated that geographical variation in the poll could explain the gains made by both the Christian Democrats and Movement Now. “This is a single poll, and I’d wait until next month to see if there’s something bigger behind this,” he said to YLE.

Taloustutkimus conducted the poll between 6 November and 3 December, receiving responses from 1,826 of the 2,572 people it contacted. The respondents were asked which party would receive their vote if the parliamentary elections were organised today.

The poll results have a margin of error of no more than two percentage points.

HS: Mäkynen offers another indication of split within Social Democrats

Although the Social Democratic Party has dominated opinion polls for the past couple of months, its leadership has appeared far from united, according to reporting by Helsingin Sanomat.

Matias Mäkynen, a deputy chairperson of the Social Democrats, stated to the newspaper last weekend, after the party had unveiled its shadow budget, that the party should do more to challenge the economic policies of the ruling right-wing coalition. The shadow budget would adjust public finances almost to the same degree as the coalition government and call off hardly any of the social security cuts the opposition party has criticised vehemently in parliament.

Mäkynen told Helsingin Sanomat that the party should dare to question the economic policy and time-frame for fiscal adjustment due to weaker-than-expected economic growth and the adoption of stimulus policies in other countries.

“I am committed to the shadow budget despite its shortcomings, and I will vote for our proposals in parliament,” he assured. “The more important question is how the Social Democrats will position itself in this economic policy debate, in creating economic growth and in managing public finances.”

Tytti Tuppurainen, the chairperson of the Social Democratic Parliamentary Group, downplayed what the newspaper had described as unusual criticism later on Saturday.

“Mäkynen himself can surely best assess what his motive is here, but I wouldn’t say this is completely unusual. He should be aware of how politicians can profile themselves in public if they want to,” she said to Helsingin Sanomat.

Aleksi Teivainen – HT

Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi

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