Jussi Halla-aho, the presidential candidate of the Finns Party, attended an election debate hosted by Nelonen and Ilta-Sanomat in Helsinki on 16 January 2024. Halla-aho is within touching distance of a spot in the second round of voting, suggests the latest opinion poll by Helsingin Sanomat. (Heikki Saukkomaa – Lehtikuva)
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JUSSI HALLA-AHO (PS) finds himself in a close fight for a place in the second round of the looming presidential elections, having seen his popularity surge from 13 to 18 per cent in the past month, reveals an opinion poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat.
Halla-aho is thereby within touching distance of the two leading candidates, Alexander Stubb (NCP) and Pekka Haavisto (Greens).
Stubb and Haavisto, the poll indicates, have both seen their popularity wane in the final stretch of campaigning, the former falling from 24 to 22 per cent and the latter from 22 to 20 per cent.
Stubb saw his popularity rebound to 24 per cent and Haavisto to 23 per cent when respondents who were not fully convinced that they would vote in the elections were excluded from the analysis. Support for Halla-aho stood at 18 per cent also among respondents who said they would definitely exercise their right to vote.
Support for Olli Rehn (Centre), meanwhile, has increased by three points to 12 per cent. Both Halla-aho and Rehn have risen in the poll as the result of growing support from within their own parties. Supporters of the Social Democrats have contrastively thrown their support behind several candidates, with Haavisto the favourite over Jutta Urpilainen (SDP).
The other presidential hopefuls have mostly trod water in the past month. Li Andersson (LA) is polling at six per cent, Urpilainen at five per cent, Mika Aaltola at three per cent, and Sari Essayah (CD) and Harry Harkimo (MN) both at one per cent.
Verian interviewed 1,008 people for the poll on 17–20 January.
The respondents were also asked to choose their favourite from a number of possible second-round contests. Stubb would beat all other candidates in the run-off, securing 55 per cent of the ballot against Haavisto, 53 per cent against Rehn and 69 per cent against Halla-aho. Haavisto, meanwhile, would suffer a close, two-point defeat against Rehn.
Seventy per cent of respondents said they would certainly vote and 17 per cent they would probably vote if a run-off election between Stubb and Haavisto.
The poll confirmed that some voters could abstain from voting in the second round in the absence of their preferred candidate. The likelihood of abstention increased particularly among supporters of the Finns Party.
Turnout in the first round is expected to be very high also based on the poll results, with 79 per cent of respondents stating that they will certainly vote or have already voted during the advance voting period. Only 14 per cent of respondents said they would probably vote, whereas three per cent stated that they would likely and two per cent that they would definitely abstain from voting.
The results have a margin of error of up to 3.1 percentage points.
The first round of the presidential elections is on Sunday, 28 January. If no candidate receives more than half of the first-round votes, the second round will be held between the two most popular candidates on Sunday, 11 February.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
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Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi
