Presidential candidates Pekka Haavisto (Greens), Olli Rehn (Centre), Jussi Halla-aho (PS) and Alexander Stubb (NCP) chatted before a presidential debate organised by Finland Chamber of Commerce in Helsinki on 8 December 2023. Helsingin Sanomat’s latest poll continues to point toward a run-off between Haavisto and Stubb, but it also reveals a jump in support for Halla-aho. (Antti Aimo-Koivisto – Lehtikuva)
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ALEXANDER STUBB (NCP) is the most popular choice to succeed President Sauli Niinistö, shows the latest opinion poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat.
Stubb, the poll indicates, would be the choice of 24 per cent of voters if the first round of voting was held today, granting him a two-percentage-point advantage over the second leading presidential candidate, Pekka Haavisto (Greens).
Support for Haavisto has risen by two points since the previous poll especially due to his growing appeal to supporters of the Social Democrats: his popularity among the group of voters has jumped from 29 to 38 per cent since November.
Jussi Halla-aho (PS) has emerged as the third most popular candidate, with the share of respondents selecting him in the first round rising from 10 to 13 per cent. The polling data reveal that he has successfully rallied supporters of the Finns Party, who are backing him at a rate of 69 per cent compared to 54 per cent in November.
Olli Rehn (Centre) dropped from ten to nine per cent, Jutta Urpilainen (SDP) from seven to five per cent and Mika Aaltola from five to four per cent. Support for Li Andersson (LA), in turn, stayed unchanged at seven per cent.
Sari Essayah (CD) was the choice of two per cent and Harry Harkimo (MN) one per cent of the respondents.
Almost three-quarters (73%) of the respondents said they would certainly vote and 19 per cent they would probably vote in the first round of the elections, which will take place on Sunday, 28 January 2024. The finding suggests that vote turnout could increase from the 67 per cent recorded first round of the presidential elections in 2018.
Almost nine in ten (89%) of the respondents stated that they would be likely to vote for their choice in the poll also in the real elections.
Stubb, the poll found, would beat each of the other candidates comfortably in the second round of voting, which will be held if no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of votes in the first round. A Stubb—Haavisto run-off, which is the most likely according to polls by both Helsingin Sanomat and YLE, would end in a 55-to-43 per cent victory for Stubb.
In the second round, men and high-income earners would mostly back Stubb and women and low-income earners Haavisto. Stubb would receive support from the National Coalition Finns Party and Centre Party, Haavisto from the Social Democrats, Green League and Left Alliance.
Over two-thirds (69%) of the respondents said they would certainly vote also in the second round of the elections. A Stubb—Haavisto run-off, though, would be somewhat unappealing for supporters of the Finns Party, of whom only 55 per cent said they would make the trip to a polling station in that scenario.
Verian conducted 1,398 interviews for the poll on 20–21 December. The poll results have a margin of error of up to 2.6 percentage points.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
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Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi
