Presidential candidates Alexander Stubb (NCP) and Pekka Haavisto (Greens) campaigned at a square in Helsinki on 7 January 2024. The two leading candidates are separated by only two percentage points in the latest opinion poll by Helsingin Sanomat, a setting that promises to drive up voter turnout, according to experts interviewed by the daily newspaper. (Emmi Korhonen – Lehtikuva)
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THE UPCOMING presidential elections are likely to reverse the decline in voter turnout due to factors such as the lack of a dominant candidate, reports Helsingin Sanomat.
“I wouldn’t personally be surprised even if we saw voter turnout at 75 per cent. In any case we’ll probably be talking about an increase of several percentage points [from the previous presidential elections],” Sami Borg, an election expert at the Foundation for Municipal Development (KAKS), stated to Helsingin Sanomat on Monday.
The 2018 elections were the first in history where fewer than 70 per cent of voters exercised their right to vote.
Both Borg and Johanna Vuorelma, a university researcher at the University of Helsinki, estimated that the drop was caused by the lack of a surprise element. President Sauli Niinistö secured his second term in office expectedly by sweeping well over 60 per cent of the vote in the first round of voting.
“Niinistö’s re-election was so sure based on polls that it had definitely an impact on voter turnout,” said Borg.
Vuorelma estimated that recent polls will likely have the opposite impact on voters. Alexander Stubb (NCP) and Pekka Haavisto (Greens) are separated by only two points at the top of the latest opinion poll by Helsingin Sanomat, with the former projected to win 24 and the latter 22 per cent of the vote. Jussi Halla-aho (PS) is trailing the two leading candidates by roughly 10 points.
“Now that the situation is completely up in the air, it’ll likely encourage people to vote more actively,” said Vuorelma.
In addition to the lack of a dominant candidate, Borg and Vuorelma estimated that voter turnout could increase as a consequence of recent changes in the foreign and security policy debate in Finland.
“We’re choosing a president for so-called hard times. I’d be very surprised if voters didn’t want to express their view on who they think would fare the best in the president’s role in this time and age,” noted Borg.
The first round of the presidential elections is on Sunday, 28 January 2024. The second round of voting, which will be held if no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of votes in the first round, will be held on Sunday, 11 February.
The advance voting period will end in Finland on Tuesday, 23 January 2024.
Aleksi Teivainen – HT
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Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi
