Flag of Nato is seen in front of coat of arms of Finland in Helsinki, Finland. Photo: Heikki Saukkomaa / Lehtikuva
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Russia could regain the capacity to challenge Nato within three to five years, according to the Finnish Defence Forces. Strategic planning chief Major General Sami Nurmi said Russia’s recent military activity near Finland’s eastern border aligns with expectations and does not suggest an immediate crisis, but underlines a growing long-term concern.
“We are observing no surprises,” Nurmi told Finnish media. “The activity matches what we have assessed would happen.”
Russia’s redeployment efforts began before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At that time, it announced plans to increase troop numbers and reinforce its northwestern garrisons. Those areas are now undergoing construction and preparation for the return of units, many of which were previously sent to Ukraine from near Finland.
Finland’s accession to Nato, along with Sweden’s, has shifted the regional security balance and prompted Russia to respond by repositioning troops. Recent satellite imagery shows steady military build-up across northwestern Russia, raising concerns among intelligence agencies and European governments.
Nurmi acknowledged that Russia retains the ability to move a limited number of troops quickly, a tactic used effectively in Ukraine in early 2022. “A limited concentration of forces can happen very quickly. Russia has the capability to do that,” he said.
While redeployment of conventional forces from Ukraine will take years, Nurmi said Russia is laying groundwork now. This includes building or expanding military infrastructure to accommodate returning or replacement troops.
A public assessment released by Danish military intelligence earlier this year warned that Russia might be capable of launching an offensive against neighbouring countries within six months of the Ukraine war ending. The assessment further suggested Russia could project force into the Baltic Sea region two years later, and be ready for a broader European war by 2030 if defences are not reinforced.
The European Union has echoed these estimates, stating in spring that Europe must be prepared to defend itself by 2030.
Asked whether Finland shares this timeline, Nurmi said the three-to-five-year range is plausible based on open-
Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi
