Asylum seekers coming from Russia been transported to Joutseno Reception Centre at the Nuijamaa border station between Russia and Finland in Lappeenranta, Finland. LEHTIKUVA
- Next Article Police tactical negotiators face record number of critical incidents
The ifo Institute in Munich published a study in February 2025 concluding that migration to Germany does not lead to an increase in crime rates. Researchers analysed police crime data from 2018 to 2023 across German districts and found no correlation between a higher share of foreigners and increased local crime.
“We find no correlation between an increasing share of foreigners in a district and the local crime rate. The same applies in particular to refugees,” Jean-Victor Alipour of the ifo Institute said.
The study addressed concerns over the apparent overrepresentation of foreigners in crime statistics. The researchers stated this is due to demographic and geographic factors. Foreigners often live in urban areas where crime levels are generally higher, and foreign populations tend to include more young men — a demographic statistically more likely to commit crimes, irrespective of origin.
“If you take these factors into account, there is no statistical correlation between the regional share of foreigners and the crime rate,” Joop Adema, another ifo researcher, said.
Even in categories such as homicide and sexual assault, the analysis found no systematic connection between the presence of foreigners and rising crime. The findings echo previous international studies.
The ifo Institute also concluded that economic integration is key to reducing crime risks. It recommended policies to improve access to legal employment and faster recognition of foreign qualifications. These would reduce economic marginalisation and support local labour markets.
Finland, in contrast, reports an overrepresentation of foreigners in crime statistics. According to Statistics Finland, during 2017–2018, foreigners were suspected of crimes at a rate 1.2 times higher than Finnish citizens, even after adjusting for age and gender. While this figure appears small, its interpretation has drawn criticism due to structural and demographic mismatches in the comparisons used.
Unlike Germany, where foreign crime rates are evaluated against demographically similar natives, Finland compares asylum seekers and migrants — largely young, male, and socioeconomically marginalised — against the general Finnish population. Finland has one of the oldest populations in Europe, with nearly 23 percent aged 65 or older in 2024. This group commits fewer crimes on average due to age-related statistical trends.
Meanwhile, the majority of asylum seekers arriving in Finland are young men. In 2024, the Finnish Immigration Service reported that over 70 percent of asylum applicants were male and under 35. Most originated from Somalia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Nigeria. These demographic patterns introduce bias when assessing crime tendencies by comparing them to an ageing, mixed-gender national population.
The comparison also overlooks regional disparities in crime. Migrants often settle in urban areas where both unemployment and crime rates are higher. These environments affect both native and foreign residents. The socio-economic conditions, not migrant status alone, contribute to increased exposure to criminal activity, according to several Finnish criminology studies.
Certain nationalities in Finland have been disproportionately represented in specific crime categories. Iraqi and Somali men, for example, appear more frequently as suspects in sexual and drug-related offences. By contrast, migrants from countries such as China, India, and Western European states tend to have crime rates lower than or similar to the Finnish average.
The Finnish government introduced several changes in response to migration pressures. In 2024, asylum applications fell by 45 percent compared to 2023. Officials attributed the decline to tighter asylum procedures, increased border controls, and restrictions against what the government calls “instrumentalised migration.”
At the same time, Finland has restructured integration services. From January 2025, municipalities took on more responsibility, although state reimbursements for such services were shortened from four years to two. Critics argue that the reduced support timeframe may limit effective integration outcomes, especially for new arrivals facing language barriers and employment challenges.
Proposed legislation now under review includes extending the residency requirement for citizenship from five to eight years and limiting the ability of rejected asylum seekers to switch to employment or study-based residence permits. The Finnish Ministry of the Interior said the changes would help ensure that legal pathways are used as intended.
Research across Nordic countries finds that differences in crime rates among migrant groups persist even after adjusting for age and gender. But these disparities diminish significantly when economic and social variables are included. Labour market participation and language acquisition show the strongest links to reduced crime risk.
Germany’s ifo study supports the view that migration alone does not predict crime. In Finland, the statistical framing of the issue may skew public perception. By comparing a small, young, male migrant population to an ageing, full-gender national base, the data can appear to suggest elevated criminality without appropriate context.
Policy analysts have pointed out that statistical interpretation affects both public discourse and policymaking. Misleading comparisons can reinforce stereotypes and drive restrictive legislation. More accurate demographic controls, such as comparing migrants to Finnish-born residents of the same age and gender in similar regions, would yield more balanced assessments.
The German approach has focused on structural variables rather than nationality-based assumptions. By isolating socioeconomic and regional factors, researchers in Germany found no consistent evidence that refugees or other foreign-born residents have a higher tendency toward criminal behaviour than comparable natives.
In both countries, labour market access remains central. A 2023 study by the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare found that migrants who found employment within 18 months of arrival were 40 percent less likely to be suspected of a crime. This mirrors findings in Germany and elsewhere.
Read Also: Police: Arrival of asylum seekers had no significant effect on crime statistics for 2015
Unprecedented influx of young asylum seekers challenges EU
HT
- Next Article Police tactical negotiators face record number of critical incidents
Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi
